Market research in Algeria: the full method when you have neither budget nor reliable public data
📌 In short: Market research in Algeria does not run into a shortage of method, but a shortage of usable data. Public statistical series are scattered, often old, and rarely granular enough for a small-firm project. The useful method therefore reverses the sequence: start from accessible field observation to build orders of magnitude, then check consistency against available public data — not the other way round. Market research is not optional: it is a mandatory part of the techno-economic study template set out in Annex V of Executive Decree No. 26-154 of 14 April 2026.
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1. 1. Why market research is not optional
Many project owners treat market research as a formality to fill pages. Two reasons make that reading expensive.
The first is regulatory. Executive Decree No. 26-154 of 14 April 2026, published in Official Journal No. 31 of 28 April 2026, sets out in its Annex V a nine-part techno-economic study template in which market analysis is a full part of the file. For an economic land application filed with the AAPI one-stop shops, it is therefore not negotiable.
The second is financial, and applies to every project, including those that never reach an administration. From our engagements, market research is the document that sets the revenue assumptions of the financial plan. Weak research produces unverifiable projections; unverifiable projections produce a fragile financing file — see our article on the business plan structure banks expect.
The real test. Market research is useful if — and only if — it lets you justify three figures: the volume you expect to sell in year one, the price at which you will sell it, and how long you will wait to be paid. Everything else is context. If your study runs to forty pages without letting you defend those three figures, it has not worked.
2. 2. What do you do when public data is missing?
This is the structuring difficulty of the Algerian context. National statistical series exist, but they are rarely available at the level of granularity a local project requires: one wilaya, one customer segment, one product range.
The approach we apply in our engagements — professional practice, not a standard:
Start from what is observable, not from what is published
On-site counts, price surveys at points of sale, observation of flows at different times of the week. This data is free, current and specific to your area. It has one flaw — it is not statistically representative — which should be stated openly rather than hidden.
Cross-check with players in the chain
Suppliers, wholesalers, hauliers, installers: they know real market volumes better than any publication. From our engagements, three well-run supplier interviews give a more reliable order of magnitude than a national extrapolation.
Use public data as a check, not a starting point
Population, households, housing stock, registrations: this data serves to verify that your field estimate is not absurd. If your local market exceeds what demography allows, the error is in your estimate.
Document every figure with its origin
A three-column table: the value, how it was obtained, the date of the reading. That table is what makes the study defensible in front of a third party — bank, administration or partner.
What not to do. Lifting a market figure from a press article or a general website and presenting it as data. Field observation: such figures are often successive repetitions of an old estimate whose original source has vanished. An openly labelled order of magnitude, obtained by a described method, beats a precise figure of unknown provenance.
3. 3. The six-step method, adapted to a small firm
| Step | Question addressed | Concrete output |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Define the market | Which product, for whom, in which area? | A one-sentence definition, a catchment area map |
| 2. Estimate demand | How many potential buyers, at what frequency? | A volume calculation with the method spelled out |
| 3. Map supply | Who already sells, at what price, with what service? | A comparison table of surveyed competitors |
| 4. Identify the gap | What do we do that others do not — and why? | A differentiation stated as a testable sentence |
| 5. Set the price | What price does the market actually accept? | A surveyed price range, not a calculated one |
| 6. Verify in the field | Do the assumptions survive confrontation? | A dated record of verifications |
Step 5 deserves particular emphasis. Setting a price from cost plus a desired margin is the most widespread and most dangerous method: it produces a price the market has never validated. The price is surveyed first, then you check that cost fits underneath — not the reverse.
Step 6 is what separates usable research from a theoretical document. We devote a full article to it: your market research is wrong without these three field checks.
Market research that stands up to a lender
Field surveys, competitive mapping, demand estimation and a documented price range — with traceability for every figure.
Request market research →4. 4. How do you analyse competition that is not documented?
For most local markets there is no usable competitive database. The analysis is therefore built by direct observation. Method drawn from our practice:
- Physically survey the players present in the catchment area defined at step 1. The survey is exhaustive over a narrow area, not approximate over a wide one.
- Record only four items for each: range, price level, opening hours or lead times, and a visible sign of activity volume (queues, stock rotation, number of vehicles).
- Distinguish four levels of competition: the direct competitor, the substitute, the informal player, and the customer's own self-supply — the last of which is systematically underestimated.
- Identify what is not served. The most interesting segment is not the one where you do better, but the one nobody goes to.
The most dangerous competitor is the one you do not count. From our engagements, informal competition and self-supply are the two factors most often absent from the studies we audit. They appear in no register, yet they capture a real share of demand and, in practice, set a price ceiling.
5. 5. The five mistakes that make research unusable
Observations drawn from our professional practice, not from a regulatory standard.
- The courtesy questionnaire. Asking "would you be interested in…" produces a high interest rate with no value. The only useful question concerns past behaviour: "what did you buy, where, at what price, when?"
- National market size. A national figure says nothing about a catchment area. A 1% market share applied to a national total is an assumption, not an estimate.
- The convenience sample. Surveying your own circle produces a bias nothing later corrects. Ten interviews with strangers beat a hundred with acquaintances.
- No dates. Research without survey dates is unverifiable and goes stale without anyone noticing. Every data point carries its date.
- The conclusion written before the research. The giveaway: no collected information changed the original project. Research that changes nothing has measured nothing.
Disclaimer. This article is a methodological document. It is not legal or investment advice and guarantees no commercial outcome. The methods described come from our professional practice and must be adapted to each sector and area. For a file submitted to an administration, only the content required by the texts in force governs.
FAQ — Frequently asked questions
🔎 Sources and references
- Executive Decree No. 26-154 of 14 April 2026 amending Executive Decree No. 23-487 of 28 December 2023 — Annex V, techno-economic study template: the market study is a mandatory part of the file — Official Journal of Algeria No. 31 of 28 April 2026 · Verified on 03/08/2026
- Algerian Investment Promotion Agency — institutional portal (one-stop shops, investment files) — AAPI · Verified on 03/08/2026
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